By Michael
Wallpaper industry growth in North America is real, but its size depends heavily on which research firm you ask. Mordor Intelligence puts North America at roughly 40% of a global wallpaper market it values at USD 13.53 billion in 2026, expanding to USD 16.64 billion by 2031 (a 4.22% CAGR). Grand View Research, using a narrower market definition, sizes the North America wallpaper market itself at USD 688.4 million in 2024, forecast to reach USD 862.3 million by 2030 (a 3.9% CAGR). Both firms agree on direction — steady, mid-single-digit expansion, not explosive growth — even though their dollar figures differ by an order of magnitude because they scope “the wallpaper market” differently. For B2B buyers and manufacturers, the more useful takeaway than any single number is why the category keeps growing: peel-and-stick formats, e-commerce distribution, and renovation spending, offset by real raw-material and import headwinds. This guide walks through both estimates, the drivers, the headwinds, and what they mean for sourcing decisions in 2026.
Is wallpaper industry growth in North America actually happening?
Wallpaper industry growth in North America is confirmed independently by two different research firms, even though they disagree on scale. Mordor Intelligence’s Wallpaper Market Size & Share Analysis (2026-2031) names North America the largest regional market at 40.12% share in 2025, and projects the global market growing from USD 13.53 billion in 2026 to USD 16.64 billion by 2031. Grand View Research’s North America Wallpaper Market Size & Outlook tracks a much smaller regional total — USD 688.4 million in 2024, rising to USD 862.3 million by 2030 — but the same upward direction, a 3.9% compound annual growth rate.
Neither estimate describes a boom. Both describe a mature, steadily expanding category, growing a few percentage points a year rather than doubling. That distinction matters for planning: it supports investment in capacity and new SKUs, but not aggressive speculative overbuilding.
What’s driving wallpaper industry growth in North America
Wallpaper industry growth in North America is driven mainly by three forces: easier installation formats, online distribution, and renovation activity. Mordor Intelligence attributes rising demand partly to “the rising do-it-yourself culture in North America,” which is “nudging homeowners toward peel-and-stick wallpapers that eliminate professional labor costs.” That single format shift lowers the barrier to a first-time buyer trying wallpaper at all, which expands the addressable market beyond traditional pasted-wallpaper households.
E-commerce is the second driver. Mordor Intelligence reports that retail outlets still held 53.42% of the distribution-channel share in 2025, but projects e-commerce growing faster, at a 5.27% CAGR through 2031 — consistent with digital visualization tools making it easier to preview a pattern before buying online.
The third driver is broader home-improvement spending, not wallpaper-specific but directly upstream of it. According to Harvard’s Joint Center for Housing Studies (JCHS) Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity, overall U.S. homeowner spending on home improvements is projected to reach USD 518 billion by the end of 2026. That is still growth, though JCHS notes year-over-year gains are easing from 2.1% in mid-2026 to 1.6% by year-end — a deceleration worth tracking, not a reversal.
On the product side, Grand View Research finds vinyl remains the largest North America segment (37% revenue share in 2024), while nonwoven substrates are the fastest-growing segment as buyers favor easier pasting, lighter weight, and better sustainability profiles. Mordor Intelligence’s global data echoes the same pattern: non-woven substrates are expanding at a 5.52% CAGR through 2031 even though vinyl (32.03% share in 2025) remains the single largest category today.
Headwinds working against wallpaper industry growth
Wallpaper industry growth in North America is not headwind-free, and the biggest risk sits upstream in raw materials. Mordor Intelligence documents that a 2025 hurricane season pushed vinyl-chloride producers Westlake and Shintech into force majeure, cutting North American vinyl-chloride supply by roughly 15% — a direct cost and availability risk for any manufacturer still leaning on vinyl substrates rather than diversifying into nonwoven or other constructions.
The second headwind is a general renovation-spending slowdown, not a wallpaper-specific one. JCHS’s own forecast is explicit that the growth rate in home-improvement spending is decelerating into late 2026, even while the total dollar figure keeps climbing. Wallpaper demand tracks renovation activity closely enough that a slower housing and remodeling market is a real constraint on how fast the category can grow from here, regardless of which market-size estimate you use.
US vs. the rest of North America
The United States is the dominant driver of wallpaper industry growth within North America, but it is not the only story. Grand View Research projects Canada will register the highest country-level CAGR within North America through 2030, even though the U.S. remains by far the larger absolute market by dollar volume. For buyers sourcing product meant to sell across both countries, that suggests Canada is a smaller but faster-growing opportunity worth separate attention rather than an afterthought bundled into a US-only plan.
Market-size estimates compared, by source
Because Mordor Intelligence and Grand View Research scope “the wallpaper market” differently, their dollar figures are not directly comparable to each other. Presented side by side, attributed by name, rather than blended into one number:
| Source | Scope | Baseline | Forecast | Growth rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mordor Intelligence | Global wallpaper market | USD 13.53B (2026) | USD 16.64B (2031) | 4.22% CAGR |
| Grand View Research | North America wallpaper market | USD 688.4M (2024) | USD 862.3M (2030) | 3.9% CAGR |
| Harvard JCHS (LIRA) | US home-improvement/renovation spending (broader driver, not wallpaper-specific) | — | USD 518B (end of 2026) | YoY growth easing 2.1% → 1.6% |
Outlook for wallpaper industry growth in North America
The outlook for wallpaper industry growth in North America through the rest of the decade is “steady and mid-single-digit,” not flat and not explosive, across every named source in this guide. Mordor Intelligence’s 4.22% global CAGR and Grand View Research’s 3.9% North America CAGR sit close enough together that, despite disagreeing on absolute market size, they broadly agree on pace. Layer in a renovation-spending backdrop that JCHS expects to keep growing (just more slowly) through 2026, and the direction for buyers is consistent: plan for gradual category expansion, prioritize the segments already outgrowing the category average — nonwoven substrates and e-commerce-driven peel-and-stick — and build in a raw-material contingency plan given 2025’s vinyl-chloride supply disruption.
Sourcing for wallpaper industry growth: how RunpWell helps
Whichever estimate you use, wallpaper industry growth in North America means distributors, brands, and e-commerce sellers need a supply chain that can flex with it. RunpWell supports that with OEM wallpaper manufacturing built around low MOQs, consistent color-batch QA/QC across reorders, and scalable capacity for both established vinyl lines and the nonwoven substrates gaining share. If you’re evaluating OEM wallpaper manufacturing partners, comparing options among top wallpaper manufacturers in the USA, or weighing US-based versus custom wallpaper factories in China, our team can walk through specs, samples, and lead times for your specific SKU mix. Browse the wallpaper product line or email support@runpwell.com to talk through sourcing for your next order.
FAQ
Is the wallpaper industry actually growing in North America, or is that just marketing?
It is genuinely growing, per independent research: Mordor Intelligence and Grand View Research each track upward trends, at 4.22% and 3.9% CAGR respectively, even though they use different market scopes and land on very different dollar totals. Neither shows a decline.
Why do market research firms report such different wallpaper market sizes?
Firms define “the wallpaper market” differently — some scope covers wallpaper alone, others fold in adjacent wallcovering categories, plus differences in whether figures are manufacturer, wholesale, or retail-price based. That is why Mordor Intelligence’s global figure and Grand View Research’s North America figure differ by an order of magnitude for what sounds like the same category.
Is peel-and-stick wallpaper responsible for most of the industry’s growth?
It is a major contributor, not the whole story. Mordor Intelligence links rising demand partly to DIY culture pushing buyers toward peel-and-stick formats, alongside e-commerce growth and renovation spending — three separate drivers working together, not one factor alone.
What is the biggest headwind for wallpaper manufacturers right now?
Raw-material supply. A 2025 hurricane season forced vinyl-chloride producers Westlake and Shintech into force majeure, cutting North American vinyl-chloride supply by about 15%, according to Mordor Intelligence — a real cost and availability risk for vinyl-heavy product lines.
Is Canada growing faster than the US wallpaper market?
By CAGR, yes — Grand View Research projects Canada to post the highest country-level growth rate within North America through 2030. The US still remains the far larger market by total dollar volume.
How does home renovation spending affect wallpaper demand?
Closely. Harvard’s JCHS projects US home-improvement spending will keep growing to roughly USD 518 billion by the end of 2026, even as the year-over-year growth rate itself eases — a supportive but decelerating backdrop for wallpaper demand specifically.
The bottom line
Wallpaper industry growth in North America is confirmed by more than one named research firm, running at a steady mid-single-digit pace rather than a dramatic boom, powered by peel-and-stick adoption, e-commerce, and renovation spending, and constrained by real raw-material supply risk. For sourcing teams, that argues for planning around gradual, durable demand rather than either extreme. Questions on where your product line fits into that growth? Email support@runpwell.com or start with our B2B buying guide for the sourcing fundamentals covered above.
Sources: Mordor Intelligence — Wallpaper Market Size & Share Analysis, Growth Trends and Forecast (2026-2031); Grand View Research — North America Wallpaper Market Size & Outlook, 2024-2030; Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies — “Remodeling Growth Set to Downshift in Late 2026” (jchs.harvard.edu).